✳ AI Field Notes · 30 cards

You’re earlier than you think.

One argument in thirty cards: AI adoption is microscopic, capability is compounding, and the skills gap is the opportunity. Every number below is sourced and linked — no vibes, no invented stats. Save them, share them, argue with them.

How these are made: an image model paints the backdrop (labeled “Art: AI backdrop” on the card) — but every dot, bar, and number is drawn by deterministic code from the sourced figure. AI draws the world; code draws the data. The receipts for all 30 cards are at the bottom of this page.

I · Adoption is microscopic

Each dot is 3.3 million people. — 2,500 dots = 8.28 billion humans. Colour = deepest AI use, 2026.
No. 01 Each dot is 3.3 million people.
1 in 9 humans. Once a week. — 900M weekly ChatGPT users vs. everyone alive, Feb 2026.
No. 02 1 in 9 humans. Once a week.
50 million pay. 4.6 billion could. — Paid AI subscribers (OpenAI, Feb 2026) vs. mobile-internet users on Earth.
No. 03 50 million pay. 4.6 billion could.
71% use it. 1 in 3 scaled it. — Of 100 organizations: those regularly using gen AI vs. those scaled past pilot, 2025.
No. 04 71% use it. 1 in 3 scaled it.
Half quit within a year. Paid users stay. — ChatGPT users still active 12 months in — free vs. paid. (est., Yipit/a16z)
No. 05 Half quit within a year. Paid users stay.

II · Capability is compounding

Intelligence fell off a cliff. — Price per 1M input tokens, frontier-grade → today.
No. 06 Intelligence fell off a cliff.
100 million users, in two months. — Time for each technology to reach 100M users.
No. 07 100 million users, in two months.
2,048 tokens became 2 million. — Frontier context windows, 2020 → 2024. Roughly a thousandfold in four years.
No. 08 2,048 tokens became 2 million.
4.4% → 71.7% in twelve months. — Share of real GitHub engineering tasks AI agents could resolve (SWE-bench).
No. 09 4.4% → 71.7% in twelve months.
No medal. Silver. Gold. — AI at the International Mathematical Olympiad, 2023 → 2025.
No. 10 No medal. Silver. Gold.

III · The skills gap is the opportunity

AI postings up. Everything else down. — Job postings, year over year, from ~1 billion ads analyzed.
No. 11 AI postings up. Everything else down.
The AI premium: +56% on wages. — Wage premium for jobs requiring AI skills. It more than doubled in one year.
No. 12 The AI premium: +56% on wages.
Only 1 in 3 get AI training at work. — Workers whose employer offers AI-skills training, 2025. The rest are on their own.
No. 13 Only 1 in 3 get AI training at work.
What the trials actually found. — Randomized and controlled studies of AI at work:
No. 14 What the trials actually found.
80% of devs use AI. 1 in 10 pays for it. — Of ~47M developers worldwide: AI-tool users vs. paid GitHub Copilot subscribers.
No. 15 80% of devs use AI. 1 in 10 pays for it.

IV · Every platform shift looked this early

1995: under 1% were online. — Share of humanity using the internet, then and now.
No. 16 1995: under 1% were online.
2008: one phone in nine was smart. — Smartphone share of mobile handsets: sales share 2008 → installed share 2025.
No. 17 2008: one phone in nine was smart.
63¢ of every VC dollar goes to AI. — AI's share of US venture capital invested (trailing 12 months).
No. 18 63¢ of every VC dollar goes to AI.
$1.7B → $37B. — Enterprise spending on generative AI — now over 6% of all enterprise software, three years after ChatGPT.
No. 19 $1.7B → $37B.
Faster than the PC. Faster than the internet. — ~40% of US adults used gen AI within two years of launch — the fastest measured adoption of any technology.
No. 20 Faster than the PC. Faster than the internet.

Field extras

400M. 800M. 900M. — ChatGPT weekly active users, Feb 2025 → Feb 2026.
No. 21 400M. 800M. 900M.
23% use it at work. 9% every workday. — Employed US adults using generative AI on the job, Aug 2024.
No. 22 23% use it at work. 9% every workday.
Speed records are cheap. — Threads reached 100M in a record 5 days. ChatGPT took 2 months — then kept climbing to 900M weekly.
No. 23 Speed records are cheap.
4.7 million pay to code with AI. — GitHub Copilot paid subscribers, Jan 2026 — up 75% in a year.
No. 24 4.7 million pay to code with AI.
$19B on apps. $18B beneath. — 2025 enterprise gen-AI spend: application layer vs. infrastructure (incl. $12.5B in model APIs).
No. 25 $19B on apps. $18B beneath.
2 in 100 households pay for AI. — US households with a paid gen-AI subscription, 2026 — up 155% in a year.
No. 26 2 in 100 households pay for AI.
1 in 4 humans has never been online. — 26% of the world — roughly 2.2 billion people — was still offline in 2025.
No. 27 1 in 4 humans has never been online.
The race has barely started. — Consumer AI usage: ChatGPT ≈4× Gemini, ≈8× Claude. (est., Yipit/a16z)
No. 28 The race has barely started.
33% → 65% → 71%. — Organizations regularly using generative AI in at least one function.
No. 29 33% → 65% → 71%.
At expert parity. — MMLU knowledge benchmark: models vs. the measured human range, 2020 → 2024.
No. 30 At expert parity.

The receipts

Every card’s figures with their sources. Estimates are labeled “est.” on the card itself. If a number here stops matching its source, tell us and we’ll fix the card.

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