NEVER UNDERESTIMATE HOW WRONG YOU CAN BE! - 3 Ways to Reduce the Pain of Being Wrong! - 053
Peter Saddington's video explores the discomfort associated with being wrong, particularly for entrepreneurs who often face uncertainty. He pinpoints the entrepreneurial dilemma as the tension between acknowledging the fractal and variable nature of the world, and maintaining unwavering hope and confidence in the success of their ventures. Saddington argues that the pain of being wrong stems from the cognitive dissonance created when deeply held beliefs are proven false, leading to self-doubt. The video emphasizes that while external factors are largely uncontrollable, individuals *can* manage their emotional responses and the level of effort they dedicate to a task. Saddington shares that his own experiences have shown him that the greatest source of error often lies in misjudging people, the "ultimate variable," rather than in market analysis or strategic planning.
Full Transcript (3770 words)
But being wrong isn't a bad thing. It's natural. And learning. Here's the key. Learning about yourself is the goal. Never underestimate how wrong you can be. It reduces the pain that you could inflict in yourself if you're weak-minded. But learning about yourself is the goal. I built many startups. Most of them are failed. So Bitcoin is exactly the place that I like to be. We're gonna end it right there. Have you ever been wrong before? Oh, I'm sure you have. I'm sure you have. I'm sure you've been wrong before just as I have been wrong before. You see, this is what I've been meditating on today after my gym workout as well as my assignment this morning. I was thinking about how wrong I've been in occasions past. That is what I want to talk with you guys about today. You see, have you ever
made a big bet? Have you ever been overconfident? Have you ever been so assured of some outcome, some idea, some person, some situation, some project? And in the end of days, you were slammed down. You were wrong. Completely wrong. Dead wrong. Dead as a doornail. The title of today's topic is never underestimate how wrong you can be. I'm meditating on this and what really came to mind is the pain of being wrong. That is the heart of the matter, isn't it? We all admit and we all get this idea of being wrong. We've been wrong before. And in many times, it's less about the correction. It's more about the pain of being wrong. The cognitive dissonance that's created because we held something to be true. We believe something to be true and it turned out to be false. And what happens in turn is that
we create these mental ideas around ourselves. Maybe we weren't as smart as we thought we were. Maybe we weren't as bright or competent or logical or as logical or as smart as we thought we were. You see, this at the end of the day, especially for entrepreneurs, is what I would consider one of the many entrepreneurial dilemmas. And what is this? What is this entrepreneurial dilemma? It's the entrepreneurial dilemma. Let me see if this resonates for any of you builders out there. But the entrepreneurial dilemma is knowing that the world is fractal and variable. Knowing that the world is fractal and variable, but at the same time, number two, having the most hope. The most self-esteem, the most self-assurance and the most confidence that it's going to work. Is that not the tension that entrepreneurs deal with? Is that we know. We know as entrepreneurs,
ask me guys. I know that the world is fractal and variable and you might say, well, Peter, those are some big-ass words. What do those mean? Well, guys, I studied and I spent years, a decade plus in complex systems, complex organizations. And I can tell you that complex organizations, life is complex. Life is complex. There's too many unknowns. And if you've studied or any of you guys have studied out there, complex adaptive systems, then you will know this. The world is fractal. There is no pattern to human nature. There is no pattern to us humans. And there is no distinct pattern. I can truly be, truly, truly emerge from a multiplicity, a variable people. I always like to say that the biggest variable in the world is humans. The biggest variable in the world is humans. We're the reason why things go wrong. I used
have studied out there, complex adaptive systems, then you will know this. The world is fractal. There is no pattern to human nature. There is no pattern to us humans. And there is no distinct pattern. I can truly be, truly, truly emerge from a multiplicity, a variable people. I always like to say that the biggest variable in the world is humans. The biggest variable in the world is humans. We're the reason why things go wrong. I used to say this a lot as a consultant. I remember telling my clients lots of times that we would have perfect software. Seriously, I would tell my clients, I would say, we would have perfect software if we just didn't have daggone people. People are the greatest variable to software. People are the greatest variable to anything. We should, we should almost welcome, if we want, consistency in life, we
should almost welcome the board. We should welcome Skynet. We should welcome the machines to take over our jobs because machines, they have a less chance of being variable. We humans deal with emotions. We humans deal with the feelings. We humans have shit in our lives that we bring into work. We have things that we humans have shit in our lives that we bring into relationships. We bring into our family. We bring into our brains. This is the entrepreneurial dilemma that we as entrepreneurs know that the world is variable. People are variable. Markets are variable. Everything is fractal. There is no pattern that you can truly pull out of life. But yet at the same time, we as entrepreneurs have the greatest hope. We have the most hope, the most self-confidence, the most self-assurance, the most everything because we have to believe that what we're doing
is going to work. Then we find that it didn't work. This is so unique, I believe, to the entrepreneur and beyond. This is so unique. There's such a deep sense of conviction here, especially from where I'm sitting. There's a deep sense of conviction between these two. I can hold these two ideas in tension and balance. It's fascinating. It's fascinating whenever I think about a new project. How I know, coming into that project, that I'm going to give my all, one of the things that I know that I can control. What I put in, the effort that I put in, I know I can control that. I know that I can grind hard. I know that I can work harder than anyone else. I know that my idea, the idea that I can grind on, if I work harder than everyone else, and I be as
resourceful as I possibly can, I know I can be successful. But at the same time, I have a tension that knowing the world is variable and that I can be wrong on certain things, many things, mostly people. Again, remember, don't miss this. If you need a deeper dive into this, go back to one of my first law of success podcast. You can type that in, first law of success. But remember, don't miss this. The only thing that you can really control in this world, or in any type of entrepreneurial activity, or anything period. The only thing that you can really control is two things. Your emotions going into that, your feelings going into that, and number two, the effort that you are willing to put in. For the life size, a gigantic size, a universe size, goal that you have. Are you willing to trade
of success. But remember, don't miss this. The only thing that you can really control in this world, or in any type of entrepreneurial activity, or anything period. The only thing that you can really control is two things. Your emotions going into that, your feelings going into that, and number two, the effort that you are willing to put in. For the life size, a gigantic size, a universe size, goal that you have. Are you willing to trade your time, your effort for a goal beyond yourself? Are you willing to put the effort in? You know, whenever I consider, and I deeply consider today, whenever I consider where I've been wrong the most, I'll tell you where I've been wrong the most. It's not been in the market. It's not been in the industry. It's not been in my efforts that I'm going to put into this
project. It's not any of that. It's not the planning. It's not the thinking. It's not all the project. It's not none of that. You know what I've really been wrong the most, and I bet you can resonate with this listener out there, especially if you're listening on iTunes podcast or Google Play. I bet you know where you've been wrong the most, right? It's people. It's people. The ultimate variable, like I talked about previously. People are the ultimate variable. People keep promises. They break them. People get excited. Oh, isn't it true that the excitement of the new employee getting into that new corporate job, the excitement and the honeymoon wears off. Doesn't it? Depending on how dysfunction fucked up your corporate culture is, that honeymoon could last anywhere between a couple days. If you're lucky and you have a somewhat of a good corporate culture, it
could last a couple months. But I'll tell you the honeymoon always wears off and the promises and the excitement that they had coming into this enterprise have been dulled by dysfunction. People promises unkept. Isn't that true? What about perception when they show their face when people show their face, especially the first your first impression of them, wow, they look like a great worker. Wow, they really talk a big game. Wow, they really can do X. They can do Y. They can do Z. She can do this. He can do that. They said they would. They said they could. They said they said they said. But they're the ultimate variable. People change. We have to remember this just as your life and just as my life has a thousand different inputs every day. Variables every day that affect what we do, our behaviors, our feelings, our
emotions, it affects everything. And in that day, just like that, people can change. And you'll wonder. And you'll say, what happened? Why did it change? You just have to remember. People are variable. One of the things that I always like, especially when it comes to interviewing people and interviewing people for a job, I want to see you work. I want to see you work. I want to see what you're really made of because at the end of the day, you can make me promises. You can say shit to me. You can give me a false perception that you're a good worker, that you're a hard worker, that you're a jovial, and that you're excited to be here. You guys know what that's like because you guys had jobs. Maybe someone you maybe never, but most of you guys out there have had jobs. You know
see what you're really made of because at the end of the day, you can make me promises. You can say shit to me. You can give me a false perception that you're a good worker, that you're a hard worker, that you're a jovial, and that you're excited to be here. You guys know what that's like because you guys had jobs. Maybe someone you maybe never, but most of you guys out there have had jobs. You know what that is. The honeymoon feeling. You see, people are the greatest disappointment in life. And we should never underestimate. Never underestimate how wrong we can be. You know why? Because when we underestimate how wrong we truly can be with people, then we are guaranteeing great disappointment, grave disappointment in other people. And being and in doing so sometimes may even question who we are. But that's what I
don't want you to do. And that's what I wrote down here. Being wrong isn't a bad thing. It's not a bad thing. I've been wrong mostly with people, but I continue on. As the relationship breaks up, the business relationship breaks up. People move in different directions. We try something else. I'm quick to move on. Some people might look at me and say, you're heartless. No, I got shit to do. I'm not going to ruminate. I'm not going to wallow in the pain and suffering of that poor decision. I'm not going to wallow in myself and self pity and become a victim mentality. That's some nonsense. That's some bullshit. But being wrong isn't a bad thing. It's natural. And learning. Here's the key. Learning about yourself is the goal. Never underestimate how wrong you can be. It reduces the pain that you could inflict in yourself
if you're weak minded. But learning about yourself is the goal. Being wrong can fuck up people. I get it. I get it. You can fuck people up because you put so much into it. You had so much hope. You had so much self-confident. You have so much assurance that this would work out the way that you assumed. Key idea. Assumed. Which is, it makes an ass out of you and me. Right? When you assume. Being wrong can fuck up people. I hope most of you have thick skin, especially if you're an entrepreneur. You should grow thick skin because you're going to be wrong a lot. Because if you're a true entrepreneur, that means you're going to be executing a lot. You're going to be building quickly, validating your assumptions, validating your hypotheses, validating against data. What you are, what really is valuable to the market.
What's really valuable to customers. What's really valuable to people. And you will find quickly if you're awesome at being a startup entrepreneur. You will find quickly that you are wrong all the time. And the reason is is because you do not know. Please don't miss this. You do not know what people truly want or need until they tell you what they don't like. Let me say that again. You will never truly understand, especially if you're building a product or service. You will never truly understand what your customers, your market needs until they tell you what they don't like about what you gave them. Which is why executing quickly, experimenting quickly, building quickly to get feedback quickly is so important. If you're an entrepreneur and you follow this vein of logic, if you are an entrepreneur and you follow this vein of process, then you will
again. You will never truly understand, especially if you're building a product or service. You will never truly understand what your customers, your market needs until they tell you what they don't like about what you gave them. Which is why executing quickly, experimenting quickly, building quickly to get feedback quickly is so important. If you're an entrepreneur and you follow this vein of logic, if you are an entrepreneur and you follow this vein of process, then you will learn quickly that being wrong isn't a bad thing. You will learn what you need to build from all the feedback of them telling you that you were wrong. Being wrong isn't a bad thing. It's a good thing. It allows you to learn about yourself. It allows you to learn about your project. That's what you're focused on. And so I wrote a couple of things down. Three things
to be exact. When it comes to being wrong in the pain of being wrong, if that's where you're stuck, especially, if you have been wronged or if you have been wrong about a person. Number one, give yourself permission to make those mistakes. Give yourself permission. I gave myself permission years ago, my friends. And I no longer consider it. I assume that I'm going to be wrong about this person. I know it might seem like a negative Nancy thing that you're going into business and you're looking at this individual. And there's sitting across the table from you and they're super excited to get started with you. I immediately know that when I look at that person, that person is going to fucking disappoint me. You know why? Because I'm human. I make assumptions. I make assertions. I make hypotheses about who I think that person is.
And I can't fill in all the gaps. I guarantee myself I'm the day that I hire that individual. The day that I begin working with the individual that I will be disappointed with them. Give yourself permission to make mistakes with people. And be forgiving with them. And even more forgiving with yourself. Number two, open your mind to alternate realities that it's okay to be wrong. You didn't see it in the right vantage point. You didn't see it from the right view. You didn't see it from the right way. You need to unlearn shit because sometimes your own functional dysfunctions, your own dysfunctions in life become personal blockers to success. You constantly see the same thing, the same issue, the same situation, the same person, or you treat the same person the same way and it doesn't work. Let me give you a quote. I don't
know where it's from, but I wrote it down. I came to my head and said, a mistake repeated more than once is a decision. I'll repeat that. Quote, a mistake repeated more than once is a decision. God fuck. I can't tell you guys how many times when I wrote this down in the foot of the nastier it's there. I can't tell you guys how many times when I've seen this. How many times have I done the same deck on bloody thing over and over again? It's like quitting smoking. You know what? I fucking quit smoking a thousand times before I actually quit. Fuck. A mistake repeated more than once is a decision. Give yourself permission to make that shit and unlearn bad behaviors. Hey, you, hey, you feel, have you been down this route before? You know what this feels like? Let's unlearn some shit.
I've seen this. How many times have I done the same deck on bloody thing over and over again? It's like quitting smoking. You know what? I fucking quit smoking a thousand times before I actually quit. Fuck. A mistake repeated more than once is a decision. Give yourself permission to make that shit and unlearn bad behaviors. Hey, you, hey, you feel, have you been down this route before? You know what this feels like? Let's unlearn some shit. Let's unlearn potential blockers to success. Open your mind stuff. So number one is give yourself permission to make mistakes. It's life. Number two, unlearn shit. Unlearn those bad behavior patterns, those bad decision patterns that keep fucking you up. And number three, seek to understand. Collect yourself. Retrospect. Forgive yourself. Retink about why you were wrong. Was your logic wrong? Seek to understand the world around you. Seek to
understand the people. Especially let's say if you're building a project as an entrepreneur, a product or a service. Seek to understand your customer. Seek to understand your user. Seek to understand your market or your demographic. Seek to understand why you were wrong. And get feedback from individuals who are willing to objectively tell you why you were wrong. And don't take it personally. Often we believe something to be true, but it turns out to be false. And this can create massive confidence issues, cognitive dissonance and demoralization of who we thought we are. Why? Because we're fragile people. Are we not or fragile in the mind? Do not let your view of self be destroyed when you find out that you were wrong. So what? You weren't as smart. You weren't as bright. You weren't as competent as you thought you were. You weren't as logical. Don't
be corrupted by the negativity of being wrong. You were wrong as a child. You were wrong growing up through elementary, middle school and high school and college. You're still wrong today. And the reason you're wrong a lot, and I'm wrong a lot is because we have to engage and deal with variable humans, variable people in which we have no bloody and stinkin idea of who they really are and what motivates and drives them. And what variables, pressures, life situations that they're caught up in that may just may create a behavior that fucks you up. You were wrong. You were wrong. So don't worry about it. You were just wrong and that's okay. So don't underestimate how wrong you can be because if you don't think about it, you're destined for destruction because you might just think that you're the shithead. You might just think that
you're always right. You might just think that you're a know-it-all and when the world shatters around you, you will not be able to recover. Number one, give yourself permission to make mistakes. Forgive yourself. Number two, unlearn some shit. When you make mistakes and you make things are wrong, unlearn some stuff. Number three, seek to understand why. Why were you wrong? Collect yourself. Regispect. Forgive yourself. You think maybe your logic is bad. When he finished this out with a great quote from Seth Godin who was a wonderful author, he said this, he said the secret to being wrong isn't to avoid being wrong. The secret to being wrong isn't to avoid being wrong. I think this makes sense. The secret is willing to be wrong. The secret is realizing that wrong isn't fatal. So today, maybe just maybe. It might not apply to you, but that's
maybe your logic is bad. When he finished this out with a great quote from Seth Godin who was a wonderful author, he said this, he said the secret to being wrong isn't to avoid being wrong. The secret to being wrong isn't to avoid being wrong. I think this makes sense. The secret is willing to be wrong. The secret is realizing that wrong isn't fatal. So today, maybe just maybe. It might not apply to you, but that's okay. But maybe just maybe. Where do you need to admit that you were wrong? This is Peter, the Bitcoin Lando. If you liked this episode about being wrong and the natural currents of being wrong, then share this, subscribe and smash the like button. I hope you guys have a great day and I'd love to see you guys and have you guys ask me questions in our behind
the scenes. Yen.io. Things I didn't learn in school podcast. Group. Yeah. See you guys. Have a great one. You
Go Deeper
About the Creator
This video is part of a library of 780+ episodes published by Peter Saddington on staas.fund. Peter is a serial entrepreneur, venture capitalist (StaaS Fund, RegD 506B), and AI practitioner who has trained 17,000+ professionals in agile and AI methodologies. He bought Bitcoin at $2.52 in 2011, built 4 autonomous AI agents (the Council of Dogelord), and operates 10+ websites with zero employees. His AI Workshop has been attended by Fortune 500 teams, and his newsletter "The Agile VC" reaches thousands of subscribers weekly. Peter holds 3 Master's degrees (Divinity, Computer Science, Computational Operations Research) from institutions including Georgia Tech.