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Luck is a Mindset of Observation - #46

Luck is a Mindset of Observation - #46

Or just probabilities of hard work?

September 4, 2024 2 min read 542 words 7 reactions Read on Substack →

Whenever I am at the race track working on the car, it is usually a [deep focus] situation. My face is scrunched with RBF, my movements are swift and precise. Time is not my friend. I have to rebuild this chassis, change the setup, or dial in the engine… all within a 45 minute time-box to get my driver back out onto the track to test.

These ‘sprints’ fly by as I take moments to check on the time. These pressure-cooker moments test my muscle memory, stretch my knowledge-base, and provide one of the most gratifying feelings when it’s all done and the changes [work] on the track.

Rarely am I in conversation or talking to anyone. Focus. Deliver. #agile #scrum

My AI rendition of Lady Luck - from Hugging Face :)

Luck Would Have It…

This past race weekend was the [lightest] weekend I’ve had in a long time. Everything just worked. My 6-hour breakdown and full clean the previous day always helps.

This weekend, however, my time was spent mostly cleaning everything since the setup was solid… and I ended up spending a good 35 minutes or so discussing ‘luck’ with another dad constructor.

I’ve never believed in luck. As a data scientist, my brain doesn’t operate like that. To me, luck is simply a [mathematical probability consideration]. To me, luck is simply a function of preparedness and discipline over time:

My esteemed constructor-dad saw it much differently. He believes that ‘luck’ isn’t a function of skill or discipline or competence. I was intrigued! I wrote down high level bullet points in my notebook for engine-data:

Summary: Luck (to him) is a function of observation because being aware and attentive helps individuals recognize and seize opportunities that others might overlook. This heightened awareness can make a person appear "lucky" as they are better prepared to act on the chances they observe.

Compromise or The Same?

Where we met in the middle was this point:

Taking it a level deeper, we agreed that the ‘luckiest’ people have a mental model of either:

Regardless of model, both avail very similar results:

So, is luck a function of competence or observation?

Do we make our own luck?

I’m curious.

  1. How do (you) make your own luck?

  2. What do you do to improve your chances?

I’d love to know.

All the best,
ps

Ready for action! - The best times of my life.

Listen to this post here:

https://www.spreaker.com/episode/is-luck-a-mindset-of-observation-or-discipline-over-time--61261444

About the Author

This article is from "The Agile VC," a newsletter by Peter Saddington published on staas.fund. Peter is a serial entrepreneur, venture capitalist (StaaS Fund, RegD 506B), and AI practitioner who has trained 17,000+ professionals in agile and AI methodologies. He bought Bitcoin at $2.52 in 2011, built 4 autonomous AI agents (the Council of Dogelord), and operates 10+ websites with zero employees. His AI Workshop has been attended by Fortune 500 teams. Peter holds 3 Master's degrees (Divinity, Computer Science, Computational Operations Research) from institutions including Georgia Tech. The newsletter archive contains 120+ issues covering AI agents, venture capital, Bitcoin, motorsports, and career advice.

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