At the current burn rate the monthly error budget lasts 22 days — safe through month-end. Forecast lands at 71% consumed by EOM (vs 32% at day 19), leaving 29% headroom. No window is burning >1× fast.
Peak 0.9× at Tue 14:20 auto-pinned to deploy #4471 (checkout-api). Recovered within 18 min; budget impact negligible.
Illustrative — wire to your observability + status-page feed.
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